Fidelis Mac-Leva22
February 2010
These are certainly not the best of times for Nigeria in terms of electricity generation. Power generation in the country has dropped to its lowest level ever and there are indications that the situation, which has been attributed to acute shortage of gas supply to the nation's power plants, would get worse. The consequences on the nation's economy are better imagined.
Checks at the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) and the Ministry of Power, show that the nation currently generates between 2,220mw to 2,240mw of electricity per day. Experts say the situation might even get to "fatality level" between March and April.
By December last year when the presidential deadline of delivering the much touted 6000mw expired, the country's power generation slumped to 3,700mw. This was in spite of expending the whole $5.09 (about N762.93billion) special intervention funds allocated for the power sector last year.
The National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) for which the federal government had injected N762.93billion were expected to add 4,770mw to the national grid by the end of 2011. But with the worsening situation in the sector, there seems to be no hope in sight that the first unit of the NIPP projects would be commissioned in the first quarter of 2011 as projected. This has further cast a shadow of doubt on the attainment of the vision 2020 development goals of Nigeria.
On February 4, 2010 during the Ministerial press briefing by the power Ministry, the Power Holding Company of Nigeria, PHCN, shocked the audience with the revelation that power generation had dropped to 2700mw. Again, shortage of gas was attributed for the degeneration.
Last week, the situation went further worse as checks at both the PHCN and the Power Ministry showed that power generation had again dropped to 2,500mw. Shortage of gas was equally advanced as reason for the decline in power generation.
A new twist was, however, added to the unfolding power degeneration saga last week. Oil giant, Shell, wrote to the Power and Petroleum Resources Ministries threatening to shut down its two gas plants unless the stock of wet condensate at the Warri Refinery was evacuated.
The volume of wet condensate at the Warri Refinery which Shell, the major gas supplying company in the country, said was hampering the supply of wet condensate was put at 472,000 barrels.
Shell's ultimatum came even as Power Minister Lanre Babalola issued a directive to the Power Holding Company of Nigeria, to accelerate the signing of the pending gas purchase agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC.
"Concluding and signing of the gas purchase agreement with the NNPC will help to secure commitment to its delivery and such a pact will help all parties to keep to terms and conditions of sale and purchase agreement", Babalola said during a meeting with PHCN management staff recently.
With the recurring issue of shortage as being responsible for the steady decline in Nigeria's power generation, analysts and energy experts are beginning to suspect the possibility of sabotage in the power sector.
This is not the first time Nigeria is coming close to total darkness due to gas shortage arising from the built up of wet condensate in the gas plants. In March, 2008, gas supplies by the Nigeria Gas Company to the Egbin and Geregu power generating plants came to a standstill due to build up of wet condensate in the Escravos gas pipeline.
As a combined result power generation at Egbin had dropped from 800mw to a paltry 100mw, while Geregu plant also suffered a daily shortfall of 150mw due to inadequate gas supplies at the time. There was a period of prolonged load shedding in the country at the time such as the one currently being experienced.
The pertinent questions are: Why has it been so difficult for Nigeria to resolve the problem of gas supply once and for all? Are there deliberate attempts by saboteurs in the power sector [within or outside Nigeria] to frustrate gas supplies for certain ulterior motives? Who should actually be held responsible for Nigeria's gas worsening gas shortage?
Even as analysts and other Nigerians ponder on these questions, statistics obtained from the PHCN show no sign of improvement in gas supplies from the six major sources of gas supply in the country. For instance the Chevron Escravos-1 gas plant [a Shell facility] is expected to generate 185million standard cubic feet [scfd] but is currently generating nothing. Same situation is obtainable at the Chevron Escravos-2 gas plant, also a Shell facility, which has the capacity of generating 300mscfd per day.
In the same vein, the Sapele pas plant as well as the one at Ughele which are expected to generate 50mscfd and 90mscfd respectively per day,are also currently generating nothing. The Oben gas plant, on the other hand, which has the capacity of generating 90mscfd is said to be getting that amount, albeit on an irregular basis, while the Utorgu gas plant is generating 290mscfd out of its 360mscfd daily generation capacity.
This implies darker days ahead for the country as the shortage of gas from the gas plants is said to be negatively impacting on the Thermal Plants at Egbin, Geregu, Afam, Sapele, Omotosho and Olorunshogbo.
Daily Trust checks show that the idle capacity of these Thermal Plants arising from shortage of gas has risen to about seventy percent.
How did we get to where we are today?
By December 24, 2009, the power generation in the country stood at 3700MW even as the actual capacity was reported to be 5,500MW.
Available records also show that as at January 2009 the actual generation distributed was 2789.6MW while the idle capacity due to gas and water limitation was 1326MW and 528MW respectively.
Due to what the Power Ministry attributed to pipeline vandalism actual generation dropped to about 1766MW between June and August 2009. Generation, however, rose to over 3700MW by December 2009 through what the Power Ministry attributed to "aggressive repair and rehabilitation" of PHCN existing plants, increased capacity from existing IPPs and collaboration with the Ministry of Petroleum/NNPC to boost gas supply.
By December last year the aggregate installed available generation capacity of the PHCN plants was put at about 5272.2MW with the gas-fired plants contributing about 73 percent of the generation mix. At that time PHCN was deemed to be capable of generating over 3,700MW of power subject to resolving the constraints of gas supply.
A summary of power generation performance in 2009 shows that the highest generation of 3710MW was attained by December 24, 2009 while installed available capacity of 5,226.6MW was reached by December 31, 2009.
The highest installed available capacity of 5,522.5MW was attained on December 23, 2009 while the highest actual generation capacity attained was 3,710MW as at December 23, 2009. On Thursday February 4, 2009, the PHCH announced that the current power generation had dropped to 2700MW. Since then the generation has being on the decline. By last week it dropped to 2500mw while as at the time of this write up it was staggering between 2200mw to 2400mw.
What is the way forward? Acting President Goodluck Jonathan has promised that the power sector would be among his areas of top priority.
Analysts say for his promise to be translated into reality, there must be actual commitment and deliverable targets from critical stakeholders such as the NNPC and IOC's in terms of gas supply.
No comments:
Post a Comment